Israel succeeded Wednesday in its year-long mission to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the man accused of being one of the masterminds of the October 7, 2023 attacks.
But while Sinwar’s death is a huge blow for Hamas, it does not signal the immediate demise of the group. Hamas has vowed to continue fighting, saying that the killing of leaders – including Sinwar – does not mean the end of their movement.
A Friday statement from Hamas’ political office confirming Sinwar’s death said: “Hamas each time became stronger and more popular, and these leaders became an icon for future generations to continue the journey towards a free Palestine.”
As rumors swirl about Sinwar’s successor, here’s what we know about what’s next for Hamas:
It is unclear whether Sinwar himself left any instructions on who should replace him, but his younger brother Mohammed Sinwar is seen by many as his heir apparent. Like his brother, Mohammed is a hardline militant who recently became Hamas’ military commander.
Mousa Abu Marzouk, the deputy chief of Hamas’ political bureau who helped found Hamas, could also be a contender to become Sinwar’s replacement. He spent five years living in the United States before the FBI designated him as a terrorist. He was eventually deported.
Khaled Meshaal, the group’s former political chief, is also seen as a powerful contender for the role. Meshaal is well known internationally, having met with top officials including former United States President Jimmy Carter, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the past.
However, he might face difficulty over his past support for a Sunni uprising against Syrian President Bashar al Assad as Hamas, itself a Shia group, is supported by Shia-majority Iran.
Sinwar’s deputy Khalil Al Hayya is seen as another powerful contender for the role. He acted as the chief negotiator for Hamas during recent ceasefire talks in Cairo and is based in Qatar.
Both Meshaal and Al Hayya have been among Hamas’ top-ranking officials for many years. And both have been the targets of Israeli assassination attempts in the past. In 1997, Israeli Mossad agents posing as Canadian tourists sprayed a poisonous substance into Meshaal’s ear. The incident was widely publicized as the Israeli intelligence service agents were captured in Jordan.
Israel has killed Hamas’ previous leaders: In 2004 they killed Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. A few weeks later, his successor Abdel Aziz Rantisi was killed.
While Hamas has always managed to recover from multiple assassinations on its leadership, it is hard to say how they will now regroup, given how Hamas’ organizational structure changed under Sinwar’s rule.
Sinwar had consolidated power during the war, becoming Hamas’ sole decision maker in Gaza following the killing of the other two top Hamas officials there.
Mohammed al-Masri – popularly known as Mohammed Deif – was the commander of Hamas’ military arm, the Al-Qassam Brigades, and was killed in an Israeli airstrike in July. Deif’s deputy Marwan Issa was killed in March, according to the Israeli military. Hamas never acknowledged their deaths.
Sinwar became Hamas’ most senior leader after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran in July. Iran blamed the killing on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces did not comment on the accusation.